Posted by Stephen Kuzner

By Stephen Kuzner - WFD Fan Correspondent

This silly season we have observed much talk and little movement. As Elvis would have put it, "a little less conversation, a little more action please"! Elvis would not be too happy about Cesc-gate. Why does the circulation in this transfer market seem so slow? When skySPORTs runs a "Top 10 Transfers of the Summer so far" article and it lists Thierry Henry at age 32 going to the New York Red Bulls, something is up. Shouldn't the transfer market after a World Cup be going bonkers?

This summer's transfer market will be known as the Mexican standoff. To figure out why, it may be better to look at the market on a micro-scale before looking at it on the macro. In negotiations, when two parties meet to discuss the selling and buying of a good, product, asset, etc. they come to the table will at least two things worked-out ahead of time: (1) their ideal price and (2) their walk-away worst-case scenario price. It you don't have a goal, you'll never hit your ideal and if the don't have a walk-away, you'll accept something beyond your means. These two prices create different ranges in which the buyer and seller will operate. Usually, deals are struck where these ranges intersect. The key thing to point out here is that these ranges don't necessarily have to intersect.

In this transfer market, at least for the good, great, and world-class players, sellers' minimal walk-away prices are higher than what most buyers can afford. How did it get to his?

There are a number of outlier signings the past few years that have warped people's perceptions of what players are truly worth. A few to mention would be Cristiano Ronaldo (€94m), Kaka (€70M), Zlatan Ibrahimović (€66M), Carlos Tevez (£47m?), Robinho (€42.5), Emmanuel Adebayor (£25). That group didn't win much silverware. What most clubs fail to realize is that if Cristiano Ronaldo is worth €94m to Real Madrid, it doesn't mean that James Milner is worth €20M+ to the other 99.99% of clubs. For less than the price of one Ronaldo, you can revamp much of a team and win the Champions League like Inter Milan did with Samuel Eto'o (€30m), Wesley Sneijder (€15m), Lúcio (€7m), Diego Milito (€25), and Thiago Motta (€14).

Even though selling prices of players are inflated from a few outliers, clubs would probably still buy players at inflated prices if they could. This is not a good thing. Clubs are kind of like shop-aholics who can't stop spending if they have a credit card. The thing is right now, many clubs credit is overstretched. They are strapped for cash. Barcelona are probably not the only club with cash-flow or liquidity problems; rather they are the only club audited by Deloitte so a new President could reveal that his predecessor was running things in the red. If Barcelona who starts 6-7 players that came through their academy ran a €77.1m deficit last year, what do the books look like at Manchester United and Real Madrid?

Clubs having little to spend would explain why Mesut Ozil has not yet been signed. With Ozil you have a player that had a great World Cup, is 20 years old, a playmaker (which has gone back in vogue), and has 1 year left on his contract. If he is not sold this summer, Werder Bremen could miss-out on a lot of money next summer when he could move on a free-transfer. Ozil is a prime target and hasn't moved yet.

However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel to see a flurry of transfers in August. The new squad rules in Premier League that sides must have a first-team squad of no more than 25, of which eight must be 'home-grown', will force some teams to unload players hopefully creating some movement in the transfer market. There might be some discounts too because of this, particularly from Manchester City.

A quiet transfer market can be dull, but it really is a mixed bag. Less movement of players means that they'll stay with the same teams longer ideally creating more squad chemistry. On the other hand, if a team has a definite need at right-back, they may not be able to sign one. If teams hold-on to players longer, the Ajax's of the world, who are masters at developing players, could again become dominant once again, thus leveling the playing field in Europe. Conversely, the teams that will lose out are the Boca Juniors and River Plates of the world who develop players to be sold to Europe and find a dry market. Either way, I'd like my Silly Season to be silly. A little less conversation, a little more action please!



Please send any feedback to skuzner@gmail.com.