Posted by Stephen Kuzner
It seems that all will be said and done within hours or minutes that Cesc Fàbregas will be transfer from Arsenal to Barcelona for a grand total of total of £35m. He can’t be worth that…right? How much is Cesc really worth? That is the million dollar, I mean Euro, or do I mean Pound question. Let’s take a look at this in purely business terms; not in sporting terms, moralistic right and wrong terms, or personal pride. Before I get going on this ever so touchy subject, let me give my credentials. I have hired 500+ people in my career up to the C-Level for large organizations and been trained in sports player compensation negotiation by a leading sports agent negotiations institute.
Cesc is worth £35m. That’s it.
Like last summer, Barça does not really need him. In reality, Cesc is a luxury to Barcelona. In terms of debt, Barça is like a homeowner being upside down in their home looking to get a home equity loan to add and addition to the house. Xavi and Iniesta should be fine for another year and Keita and Tiago provide plenty of depth. Cesc is want more so than an immediate need. Tiago is probably the long term answer. He really did well this summer in the U20’s for Spain completing a Xavi-esque 120 passes per 90 minutes. A team with the debt that Barça has can’t go breaking the bank, thus...
Barça isn’t buying Cesc unless it’s a deal or even (gasp) a bargain.
There also are market forces at play that diminish his value. (gasp again) Yes, the market has reduced his value. That can’t be right you say. Look at all the signings in the EPL of your English players and superstars at Manchester City. Problem is, they are outliers that have left people scratching their heads. They don’t raise the value of players across the board. In reality there is no true “macro market value” of football players. There may be precedents, but Andy Carroll’s transfer doesn’t raise Cesc’s value. Also, take out Real Madrid’s bid earlier this summer for Cesc that was an attempt to raise the price tag to Barça. Why?
The market for Cesc is only one team…that is Barça.
Cesc doesn’t want to go anywhere, but Barça. Thus, Barça is the entire market for Cesc. We are talking about micro economics here, not macro economics. This is one on one negotiating between two clubs. What Barça is willing to pay is Cesc’s value on the market. Ouch! That smarts if you are a Gooner. What’s worse, Cesc seems to be fully unsettled. Further micro market-wise, Cesc’s performance in the EPL last year and injuries also would drop his worth to Barça, compared to a year ago coming off the world cup. Going even further, contractually his value diminishes every year he moves closer to moving on a free transfer.
Diminishing returns?
Huh? What does that mean? People seem confused about this law of diminishing returns. Simply, it means this: the moment you sign a player is when you’d be able to sell them for the highest transfer fee (all other things being equal) because…well…you just signed them, and at the end of their contract they bring you nothing because they can move on a free transfer.
What is Arsenal’s opportunity cost of not selling Cesc?
My biggest fear for Arsenal is that this whole saga has made them appear to world class players as not a destination club. It’s taken their captain two years, who’s appeared politely unsettled, to get a transfer done back to his boyhood club after giving Arsenal 7+ years of service. Keeping him further would really ruin the locker room and make the club less attractive to the level of players it needs to sign to compete in the Champions League and EPL year in and year out. The €5-15 that the club has been fighting over with Barça is probably less than the damage done in terms of talent acquisition public relations. Heck, say hypothetically, Arsenal holds out even longer and got €60 for Cesc before the transfer window, would that make it better? No. €60 is useless if you can’t sign players because they’re afraid you won’t let them leave when they want to.
Is what Barça did unethical?
This can’t be answered beyond business. Is it unethical for Company A to recruit Company B’s top salesperson or widget maker? No, it’s called business. In football it’s called tapping-up and almost impossible to prove. I’d be a fool not to this some sort of tapping-up occurred. Everyone seems beyond that now though, and the major grievance seems to be that Barça is raking Arsenal over the coals to get a bargain. Is a transfer of £35m for a player, that Arsenal got for next to nothing seven years ago, raking a club over the coals? Hardly. At the end of the day, that’s €40 form a club that shouldn’t be spending €40 for any one player.
Stephen Kuzner is a Baltimore-based Blogger for WorldFootballDaily |
World Football Daily
