Posted by Stephen Kuzner

by Stephen Kuzner

Is €35 million a fair fee for Cesc Fàbregas?

When any key player wants a transfer, he puts his club in an unsettling situation. But it can become downright unnerving if it's your captain. Worse, if you developed him in your system over the last seven years. Worst still, you contracted him to 2015. Arsenal's ideal damage control would be convincing Cesc to stay. But how do you convince someone to stay who wants to play for his boyhood club that is regularly winning Champions Leagues Titles under his childhood hero that gave him a jersey when his parents divorced?

On the other hand, if you do convince him to stay, will he still lose focus because of a move that did not happen. This type of distraction affected the form of Javier Mascherano in Liverpool this past season. Remember, Liverpool got bumped out of the top four. So whether you call it tapping-up, wooing, tampering, dissatisfaction, or whatever you want to call it, Arsenal's best choice is to sell.

What has not been talked about much is that Barcelona doesn't have a great need for Cesc. Barcelona doesn't need much help on left side with Iniesta, Pedro, and Keita. Helb may come back from loan and even Villa can play on the wing for flexibility. Not that I am saying pushing Iniesta up to the left wing (his preferred area) and slotting Cesc behind him on the left wouldn't be an upgrade (it definitely would), but Barcelona doesn't need to break the bank for an "unnecessary" upgrade. Barcelona will buy if "The Price is Right".

That being said, unless Cesc decides he's interested in other clubs outside of Barcelona, the market by definition is Barcelona. Further, Barcelona's price is not that of Real Madrid or Manchester City. So if Barcelona doesn't have to win a bidding war, then €60-70 million is not realistic. If Arsenal doesn't like this "Barcelona market", they don't have to sell, but would be stuck with an unhappy captain. Unless Cesc decides he's interested in clubs other than Barcelona, Arsenal has little leverage in price.

Precedents mean a lot in negotiations. If we are to look at comparables, Kaka and Ronaldo would be outliers in the market especially in relation to Cesc. These are 2 FIFA World Player of Year Winners who have won the Champions League. Further, their absorbent sums aren't justified having won nothing last year. Again, the €60-70 million for Cesc is unrealistic from Barcelona.

Better comparables would be David Villa at €40.0 million, Samuel Eto'o at €30 million, Arjen Robben at €25 million, and Wesley Sneijder €15 million. Villa may be the world's best striker or at least top 3-4. Eto'o and Sneijder just won the treble at Inter. And, Robben on his best day is arguably one of the world's top 5 or at least top 10 players in the world. Sneijder is probably the closest comparable to Cesc being a player-maker in his early twenties.

In this light, €35 million for Cesc may not just be fair in a "Barcelona's Market", but also fair in the market period. If Arsenal does sell to Barcelona, it won't be far of from €35 million. Then again, it is the silly season.