Posted by Stephen Kuzner

By Stephen Kuzner - WFD Fan Correspondent

Does US Soccer Coach Bob Bradley stay or does he go? This will ultimately be answered by US Soccer President Sunil Gulati over the next few weeks and months. Any employer goes through a process when deciding to replace an employee and then who to hire. The following are 6 questions that can serve as a guide to what Sunil Gulati decision-making process may look like.

1. Did Bradley do enough as US Men's Coach to merit another 4 years?

If Sunil Gulati answers yes to this question, the process becomes a quick extension for Bob Bradley. Unfortunately, the answer to this question will be no. Although winning Group C may have been enough in past years to be retained, not avenging the 2006 defeat against Ghana in the Knock-phase makes merit a very tricky question to answer. The US's performance in last summer's Confederations Cup and Bradley's overall record the last 4 years help, but this question is too close to call. What we can reasonable guess is that in the eyes of Sunil Gulati, Bradley probably does not unequivocally deserve another 4 years. Nevertheless, he also hasn't done too little to automatically merit a dismissal. Thus, Gulati will probably consider all options.

2. Will Bradley suffer from staleness if he is retained for 2 World Cup cycles?

Everyone seems to think that if a national team coach is retained for 8 years that "staleness" sets in the following World Cup. Look at Bruce Arena and Marcello Lippi. They held onto the same players for 2 cycles and these players seemed to expire like food past its expiration date. Still something doesn't quite seem right about this theory of staleness. Let's take a look at World Cup Winners the last 20 years. In reverse order this is how much time the winning coaches had prior to the World Cup: Marcello Lippi had 2 years with Italy prior to 2006, Luiz Felipe Scolari had 1 year with Brazil prior to 2002, Aimé Jacquet had 5 years with France prior to 1998, Carlos Alberto Parreira had 3 years with Brazil prior to 1994, and Franz Beckenbauer had 6 years with Germany prior to 1990. That's 3 winners with coaches just for the 1 cycle and 2 for 2 cycles. Staleness may not be as much of a concern as initially thought.

3. How often is Bradley better than his opponent's coach?

If Bradley does not run out of ideas or cling to the same players through 2 cycles, is he still better, more times than not, than the coach standing across the field from him. Lets look at who Bradley faced this World Cup. Ghana had Milovan Rajevac, Algeria had Rabah Saadane, Slovenia had Matjaz Kek, and England had Fabio Capello. Out of this lot, Fabio Capello is probably the only one Sunil Gulati would probably want more, although Milovan Rajevac could really make a name for himself if Ghana defeats Uruguay and makes it to the semi's. Nevertheless, Bradley is not out of his league and if anything is probably better than more of the coaches that he faces.

4. Should the USA have an American or a foreign coach for the next cycle?

Should we stay with one our own or learn from a outsider that may have experience actually winning a World Cup as a coach or player? The reality of the situation is that the US is not going to win the World Cup in 2014. We don't have that caliber of talent in the pipeline right now. 2018 or 2022 would be more realistic chances if we continue to grow as a footballing nation. If we are to learn from a foreigner with some World Cup wisdom, this is the time to do it.

5. Would US Soccer experience a bounce from a new coach?

A better question would be: Would US Soccer experience more of a bounce from a new coach 1-2 years prior to the World Cup than 4 years ahead of time. The answer to question #2 gives some evidence here. Marcello Lippi had 2 years with Italy prior to 2006, Luiz Felipe Scolari had 1 year with Brazil prior to 2002, and Carlos Alberto Parreira had 3 years with Brazil prior to 1994. Taking this into consideration, hanging-on to Bradley for 2-3 more years and then bringing-in a foreign coach makes some sense.

6. What coaches can US Soccer reasonably expect to sign?

So if it makes sense to replace Bradley in 2-3 years, who can Sunil Gulati reasonably expect to be able to sign in that timeframe? A short-list right now could include Jürgen Klinsmann, Ottmar Hitzfeld, Guus Hiddink, and Carlos Alberto Parreira. Everything would seem to point in Klinsmann's direction. He was a close choice before. Maybe Sunil Gulati is willing this time around to give Klinsmann more the total control that he wanted. He speaks American English great and seems to fit right in with ESPN's broadcast of the World Cup. Heck he even has a residence in Los Angeles right convenient to WFD. If Gulati wanted to make a change and stay American, maybe Jason Kreis gets a chance or Bruce Arena is brought back-in rejuvenated. Kreis probably needs some more seasoning though.

Answer:

So what will happen? At this point, it seems that retaining Bradley for at least another 2-3 years will probably happen. And if he does well by going deep in the Copa America, maybe he'll become a permanent interim coach. However, now is the time to go abroad for a coach if we are going to do it and Klinsmann seems to fit the bill. This seems like déjà vu. Perhaps in 2-3 years, it won't be Klinsmann but rather his ESPN Studio-mate Roberto Martínez. That would give Martinez a few more years seasoning to his 3 years coaching in England. Bradley will stay at least for a year or 2, tops 3, but after that its anyone's guess. We've seen this before.

Please send any feedback to skuzner@gmail.com.