Posted by Joseph Zucker

An exercise in futility is performing a task knowing full well that the result will prove to be pointless. It could also be defined as trying to predict where Atletico Madrid will finish in the table.

Just by looking at the past few years, you can see how fruitless it has been to predict what would happen with the Rojiblancos. In 2007/08, manager Javier Aguirre led the club to a fourth-place finish in La Liga, thus qualifying for the Champions League. Good enough, right? Of course. Certainly Aguirre should be given some time if the 2008/09 season should start slowly, right? Surely. Or not. The club did start rather slowly, and Aguirre was given the sack after going win less in the first six games of 2009. Abel Resino was brought in and Atletico turned their season around, finding themselves once again in the fourth spot with the Champions League along with it. Alright, it seems the club has finally found some firm ground to build on. Abel Resino can help lead Atletico Madrid into a new era of success. All he has to do is not stumble in the beginning of the 2009/10 season. Sure enough, Atletico started the season slowly, again. The manager was given the sack, again. The dismissal followed a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Chelsea in the Champions League.

Quique Sanchez Flores was Resino’s replacement, and much like his predecessor, success followed. While unable to continue the same league standing as both Aguirre and Resino, Flores did them one better. After finishing third in their Champions League group, Atletico was dropped down into the Europa League. With a string of results, and a bit of luck, the club found themselves in the final against a charmed Fulham. Going the distance and then some, Diego Forlan’s goal in the 116th minute was the difference in a 2-1 win. It was Atletico’s first European trophy since 1962. When you combine the Europa League title with a runner-up finish in the Copa del Rey, there were many positives to take from the 09/10 season, despite a 9th place finish in La Liga.

Needless to say, there were high expectations going into the next year. The very first match of the year was the UEFA Super Cup against Champions League winners Inter Milan. It was a very different Inter side with the departure of Jose Mourinho. Atletico looked very strong and won 2-0. With two European titles under his belt, Flores looked prime to take the club back to the Champions League. I think you can get the picture now. The Rojiblancos struggled and Flores was a dead man walking. Following a 7th place finish and Europa League exit in the group stages, he was given the axe. Frequent quarrels with Forlan certainly did not help Flores’s circumstances. Gregorio Manzano has been brought in as manager in what is his second stint with the club, the first was the 2003/04 season.

That brings us to present day. With recent history and failed expectations having beaten them down, Atletico supporters refuse to be broken. There is an optimism coming out of the Calderón. This despite the fact that goalkeeper David de Gea and talisman Sergio Aguero have both changed their addresses to the greater Manchester area. The signing of Radamel Falcao has certainly led to most of that optimism. The arrival of midfielder Arda Turan has also been a source of excitement. However, in typical Atletico fashion, there can’t be too much optimism. The seemingly imminent departure of Forlan leaves the club without one of its key players. Regardless of how much drama has surrounded the Uruguayan in the past couple of years, it is undeniable how much he has meant to the club. No matter how little of a shock it will be to see him go, losing an experienced striker like him will hurt the club immensely.

While many Atletico supporters were left scratching their heads with the announcement of Manzano as manager, he may be exactly what the club needs. He brings a lot of experience with him and is a very good motivator. Rafael Benitez was a named heavily linked with the job, but with him, the club would have been one more step closer to implosion than it already is. The one thing about Manzano is that he has had his most success with smaller clubs without a lot of star names. Essentially, he is like a Spanish Roy Hodgson. Now, he is moving to a large club, and I think we can all remember how Hodgson did when he moved to a large club. Manzano will most likely stick to a 4-4-2, which is what how the club has primarily lined up over the past few years. Here’s what the club might look like:

Of course, whatever formation chosen will likely see multiple face lifts throughout the season. Arda is still injured and will likely command a starting place. Brazilian midfielder Diego is heavily rumored to be coming before the end of the summer transfer window.

Whatever Manzano does choose, it seems highly unlikely that any of it will make a bit of difference. As I have said above, no matter what the expectation, Atletico Madrid have been arguably the most consistently inconsistent team in La Liga. It would be meaningless to try and provide an educated guess as to where they finish in the final table. (If I were to make an educated guess, it would be 5th.) So with that knowledge, I will reach into a hat and select a number. Whatever number that is, that is where the Rojiblancos will finish in the 2011/12 season.

Write this down, go to Vegas, and bet it all because Atletico will finish, drumroll please.................................14th. Certainly not what’s expected at the Spanish capital. But then again, when does it ever end as expected?

On a side note, I will keep a panic meter throughout the entire season, which will be called the Falcaometer, on a scale of 1-10 (1 being calm in the Calderón and 10 being complete implosion).

Falcaometer (as of August 26, 2011)

It's early, but the departure of Sergio Aguero still lingers. There's questions about the goalkeeping situation. They kick off their season at home Sunday against Osasuna.