Club football returns after another dull international break. This time around Chelsea will visit the Stadium of Light to battle Steve Bruce's Sunderland team which is still looking for the first win of the current campaign. Their form in the first three league games is D/L/D. Bruce might shift to a traditional 4-4-2 from the 4-4-1-1; Sunderland played pretty well without the ball or at least they were pretty lucky so far; their defense can be exposed by counter attacks and dangerous high crosses; if their strikers take 10 shots, 8 are probably off target. Here is my scout report.
Bringing in Bendtner to end a goal drought is like appointing Sam Allardyce as a manager to transform a team into a creative, attacking force.
Steve Bruce has set up his men in a 4-4-1-1 formation in all three league games so far. There have been some personal changes in the lineup in some games but usually Gyan leads the attack while Sessegnon roams around in the pocket of space behind the attack and the central midfield. Larsson on the left and Elmohamady on the right provide the width to this Sunderland team as Colback and Cattermole marshal the central midfield. Richardson (L) and Bardsley (R) are both attack-minded fullbacks and they are willing to bomb down the flank. Bruce has also used O'Shea on the right back role, moving Bardsley to the left.
With the team scoring a single goal in three matches, Bruce has snatched up Nicklas Bendtner from Arsenal to bolster the Black Cats' attack. This is yet another questionable transfer move by Bruce who has bought a total of 10 players during this summer's transfer window. Bringing in Bendtner to end a goal drought is like appointing Sam Allardyce as a manager to transform a team into a creative, attacking force. At any rate, with the Dane, who thinks he's great, in the frame, Bruce must decide whether to start Bendtner in place of Gyan in the same 4-4-1-1 formation or to pair the two strikers up in a traditional 4-4-2 moving the pacey Sessegnon out to a wider position.
A team can get a result with little ball possession if they have a good defensive organization or if they are lucky and the opponent missed their chances. I think it is a little bit of both in Sunderland's case.
Even though Sunderland will be playing Chelsea at the Stadium of Light, the Black Cats will probably have less possession of the ball than Chelsea due to the difference in quality between the two teams. So far this season, Sunderland has done reasonably well in games where the opposition has more possession. Against Liverpool, Sunderland only had 40% ball possession. Yet, they still played well -- they made 58% of their successful passes in Liverpool's half -- and managed to get a point at Anfield. Against Swansea, the Black Cats were able to keep a clean sheet and grabbed another away point even though they only had 38% ball possession.
A team can get a result with little ball possession if they have a good defensive organization or if they are lucky and the opponent missed their chances. I think it is a little bit of both in Sunderland's case. They do defend as a team when they don't have the ball and they do that well. But they were lucky not to have lost the games against Liverpool and Swansea. Liverpool striker Luis Suarez missed a penalty and Swansea players also failed to finish a handful of easy chances against Sunderland.
The above picture captures an instance of Sunderland's defensive shamble. A Swansea corner kick was taken from the right but the ball eventually ended up on the left side of Swansea's attack. As a cross came in, there were eight Sunderland defenders in their penalty box but Swansea forward Danny Graham was totally left unmarked eight yards out from the goal. Graham got a free header but it was off target.
Their defenders don't have any problem getting back to defend opposition's counter attack but they often fail to pick up late runners into the box...
Sunderland's defense can be especially vulnerable in transitions as their defensive organization gets thrown out the window. Their defenders don't have any problem getting back to defend opposition's counter attack but they often fail to pick up late runners into the box, leaving themselves exposed in the back. Here's an example from the Swansea game.
The ball was played to the left side of Swansea attack as a counter-attack developed. Four Sunderland defenders (in red circles) were ready in the box to deal with a looping cross as three Swansea attackers waited in the box. The situation seemed to be under control -- four defenders marking three attackers --except that Sunderland defenders were unaware of a Swansea player making a late run in the far post (in black circle). The late runner was able to get his head on the ball and only a strong save from the Sunderland keeper kept the score line at 0-0. For that reason, even though Chelsea may have better ball possession against Sunderland, counter attacks might provide Chelsea with better goal scoring chances.
Sunderland also has a problem dealing with high crosses in general. You may already have noticed it from the two examples that I have given here from the Swansea game. Sunderland has conceded only two goals so far and both goals were direct results of Sunderland's failure to defend crosses.
Liverpool swung a cross in from a free kick from the right. Suarez eluded his marker and scored from a header. Against Newcastle, the free kick by Ryan Taylor was no doubt a very dangerous one but both Mignolet and his defender made a mess of clearing it as it floated into the net. In the Opposition Scout Report for West Brom, I wrote that putting in high crosses might not be an effective tactics. It is the opposite in Sunderland's case. Chelsea might very well profit from whipping in dangerous crosses into Sunderland's box.
Gyan and Sessegnon have a combined shot accuracy of 23%.
In offense, Sunderland has not started firing all cylinders yet. They have only scored a single goal in three games. Their two main attackers have not been clinical with their finishing. Gyan had 12 goal attempts so far and only 3 (25%) were on target. In similar vein, Sessegnon had 10 goal attempts but only 2 (20%) shots were on target. Gyan and Sessegnon have a combined shot accuracy of 23%. Therefore, Chelsea defense should not have that much trouble keeping a clean sheet at the Stadium of Light, especially with Petr Cech back between the sticks. However, both Gyan and Sessegnon have the pace and skills to slip behind Chelsea's high defensive line. So, the defensive organization between the two Chelsea central defenders, and the communication between the defenders and the goal keeper have to be flawless in order to avoid conceding goals.
The Low Down
This should be an easy win for Chelsea. The Blues should have plenty of possessions but goals might come much easier from counter attacks than from the usual planned offensive build-up. Sunderland defense is vulnerable to high crosses into the box. Quality service from the wings and from set pieces should help the cause. Not much to worry about Sunderland's attack but Chelsea high defensive line should be mindful of the pacey and skillful Sunderland forwards.
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