Is it just me or has the Newcastle fixture just gotten a whole lot less fun? Kevin 'High and Heavy' Nolan is gone. Joe 'Big Mac' Barton is gone. Mike Ashley has yet to try to ruin their season. Most of all, Newcastle is actually playing well. In fact, they haven’t lost in the league this season, gaining a respectable 22 points from the first 10 matches. What’s the takeaway from this (sadly for all Evertonians, it’s not Indian)? The match this weekend is primed to suck at least as much as the past few have for Everton. Newcastle may not be as good as United or City, but they have what Everton does not: a striker who is scoring and confidence.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not calling for an embarrassing loss. I’m the guy that hasn’t picked Everton to lose a game in the past 3 seasons (where are those trophies by the way?). At the same time, I think I need to help manage expectations here. If we go into the match Saturday thinking we should blow Newcastle off the field, we’re going to be disappointed if it’s a nasty game and we have to sneak a point at the end.

In terms of the form table, Newcastle is third, having won four of their last six matches. Everton is sixteenth, having lost four of our last six matches. Sure, I could go into how Newcastle has been playing the ‘shite of the league’ and Everton has been facing the world’s best, but the fact of the matter is that Everton’s results recently aren’t anything to brag about.

Do I think we have a chance to give Newcastle their first loss on Saturday? Absolutely. Would I bet on it before I see how we play? No. The problem for Newcastle is that their current form is temporary. Before all of the Geordies jump on me, I’m not saying that your team is bad. I am saying that you don’t have a team that can consistently go on ten-game unbeaten runs. Everton’s form is also temporarily bad, because of a tough early-season schedule and a stultifying lack of depth. We don’t have a striker who is scoring consistently, our defense is leaky and our midfield looks like they long for the creative presence of Mikel Arteta or Steven Pienaar.

The result Saturday, then, will rest on whether Everton can turn their possession play into goals. Royston Drenthe’s return is a good omen but our passing play has been woeful of late. Sure, we’ve been keeping the ball but as usual we haven’t been moving the ball into threatening positions and, when we have, we haven’t made the other team pay for it. This is the refrain from the past two seasons; it’s just gotten worse this year because we sold all of our strikers. If we’re going to have a chance to beat Newcastle on Saturday, we’re going to have to score, because our defense isn’t playing well enough to keep an on form Demba Ba from getting a goal. I’m not saying we need to throw caution to the wind but we need the boost of confidence that only goals can provide.

In his press conference today, David Moyes noted that Tim Cahill, Sylvain Distin and Phil Neville would all be facing late fitness tests ahead of the match tomorrow. Marouane Fellaini picked up his fifth yellow card against United last weekend and is banned for this fixture. I hope that this forces Moyes into making offensive changes to the team, though I think we could be in for a 4-5-1 with Louis Saha up top and John Heitinga in the midfield (cringe). I think James McFadden will reappear for Everton tomorrow but it will be off of the bench as he played almost a full half yesterday for the reserves.

As such, here is my XI to start (4-4-OMG):

                                    Howard

 Hibbo                Jagielka            Distin               Baines

Coleman            Osman             Rodwell            Drenthe

 
                        Vellios               Saha

Substitutes will (hopefully) be: Gueye for Coleman, Cahill for Vellios and McFadden for Osman

Prediction: I’d be happy if we escape SportsDirect.com@St. James’ Park with a draw. Let’s say 1-1. The pessimist is never disappointed and this is a tough match after the run we’ve had.

Nevertheless, COME ON YOU BLUES!