Milan and Inter will face off in a pre-season derby this Saturday at the Beijing National Stadium for the right to lift the Italian Supercup. Although Milan arrive in Hong Kong as the Scudetto champions, the onus is very much on Inter to show that they still have it within themselves to push their city-rivals to the end and even overtake them in the fast-approaching Serie A season.

The Nerazzurri's issues are firmly in regards to the defense Gasperini has called up relative to the formation the Italian intends to deploy. When scrutinizing the Inter’s defense we must first look at the absentees. Unlike in Milan’s case where Allegri called back the entire South American contingent that played in the Copa America, Gasperini finds himself without some of them. The ones of interest to us however are Maicon and most notably, Lucio. Maicon has been a key player for Inter and the team’s offensive transitions throughout his career with the Nerazzurri, and so his absence will be felt. But it is the fact that towering Brazilian center-back Lucio will not be there, which will hurt Inter the most. We indeed saw a similar situation in the second Derby della Madonnina of the season. In the pre-match of this encounter, many pundits made a lot out Zlatan Ibrahimovic not being able to take part [due to suspension]. However it proved to be that Inter being deprived of Lucio which proved the pivotal factor, as the Rossoneri put their opponents to the sword in an emphatic 3-0 victory.

In Gasperini’s 3-4-3, that issue will be all the more magnified [naturally] due to the fact that he will deploy a three-man backline. Lucio is a powerful, uncompromising, and monstrously athletic center-back who would immensely improve Inter’s chances defensively. And therein lies the problem really. With the absence of Lucio, we must then look at the players who are available for the defense. The first names that come up are club captain Javier Zanetti, Ivan Cordoba, Andrea Ranocchia, Cristian Chivu, and Walter Samuel. The most likely players to feature in Gasperini’s three-man backline would be Cordoba, Ranocchia, Chivu, Samuel, and the aforementioned – but unavailable – Lucio. With Lucio not being there, one would think that Samuel would slot in seamlessly. However the issue is that Samuel has not played any football for a year now and thus may have lost a lot of his dynamic presence since then. In effect the nature of his injury and considerable lay-off time would make him quite the gamble to throw into this game. As for Chivu, he has proven on multiple occasions last season that he has simply lost all his pace and become far too error-prone. Therefore, in the context of a three-man backline, the Romanian could prove a huge liability. This then leaves young Ranocchia to anchor the defense, a truly daunting task for a boy who showed his age last season with some shaky performances (against Bayern Munchen in Champions League and key Serie A games in particular) for Inter. Cordoba is not necessarily a great option through the middle of that three either due to his lack of size and physicality. I expect him to do well flanking the center-back however due to his ability to read to game and cover the wide areas. After all, the Colombian played many years as a left fullback for the Nerazzurri, and so I don’t anticipate the transition to a three-man backline to be too difficult an adaptation. The solution would really seem to be playing Zanetti through the middle and have Ranocchia to cover the right side of the defense. The Argentine’s experience should prove useful and the best option of the lot. With Ranocchia on the right of the defense, another problem does emerge however. It is most likely that Robinho or Antonio Cassano will be cutting in from that side. Both being right-footed players, Ranocchia – also being right-footed – could have a hard time defending against Milan’s attacks coming from wider positions.

In the end, the point being made here is that a three-man defense without Lucio anchoring it is a risk for Inter. Gasperini exacerbates the issue by playing Sneijder in central midfield ahead of the defense. The Dutchman’s less than ideal defensive and tackling abilities would only expose the defense further. The solution would be to play with a double-pivot midfield, with [ideally] Zanetti playing alongside Thiago Motta. Other options do exist however with Dejan Stankovic and even Sulley Muntari. Young McDonald Mariga is himself a great option for that role, but it unlikely that he would get the nod.

With all these issues born of Lucio’s absence, it might be best for Gasperini to fortify his defense by simply switching to a 4-3-3. Retaining a 3-4-3 and tinkering the midfield to protect what looks a fragile defense, could throw the entire balance of the team off. In effect removing Sneijder from central midfield to solidify it as a means to protect the defense seriously stunts Inter’s ability to move the ball forward, at speed, and indeed robs them of what the Spanish call profundidad*. To that point, we go back to the absence of Maicon which here makes itself known, as the Brazilian would have provided just that in the attacking phases of the play. Allegri is sure to latch onto this and probably deploy Robinho as a seconda punta (second striker) and Kevin Prince Boateng as a trequartista (playmaker) in order to pull and stretch the defense as wide as possible. In this particular tactic, Taye Taiwo would have proven a great exponent had he not been unavailable [through suspension**].

* Profundidad: refers to a team’s ability to play in vertical spaces – not necessarily long-ball tactics – by always looking to move the ball forward and towards goal, through either defense-spitting passes or dynamic individual runs

** Taiwo was suspended following Marseille’s Coupe de France victory, when the Nigerian sang offensive songs direct at OM’s arch-rivals PSG